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Grobničan Čavle vs Hrvace — Second NL 2022

Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hrvace
Hrvace
11/23/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 14Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Grobničan Čavle44%
×Draw23%
Hrvace33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobničan Čavle
1.75
Hrvace
1.48

Grobničan Čavle creates 18% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.78
Hrvace
1.49

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.48
Hrvace
1.73

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par
Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Hrvace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw
67%
Grobničan Čavle or Hrvace
77%
Draw or Hrvace
56%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
23%
Hrvace wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
83%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
52%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
25%
Hrvace 1+ goals
77%
Hrvace 2+ goals
43%
Hrvace 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
57%
Hrvace (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Hrvace defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hrvace attack 1.49 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more
44%
level
23%
Hrvace scores more
33%

Grobničan Čavle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grobničan Čavle vs Hrvace

Hrvace beat Grobničan Čavle 3-1 in Second NL on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba in Čavle.