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Hřebeč vs Český Brod — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Hřebeč
Hřebeč
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Český Brod
Český Brod
8/19/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 3Stadion SK Hřebeč

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hřebeč40%
×Draw25%
Český Brod35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hřebeč
1.52
Český Brod
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hřebeč
1.72
Český Brod
1.08

allows per match

Hřebeč
1.72
Český Brod
1.31

finishing

Hřebeč+0.00on par
Český Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hřebeč ↓

Český Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hřebeč or draw
65%
Hřebeč or Český Brod
75%
Draw or Český Brod
60%

Winning margin

Hřebeč wins by 2+
20%
Český Brod wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hřebeč 1+ goals
78%
Hřebeč 2+ goals
45%
Hřebeč 3+ goals
20%
Český Brod 1+ goals
75%
Český Brod 2+ goals
41%
Český Brod 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hřebeč (draw refunded)
54%
Český Brod (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hřebeč at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Český Brod away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hřebeč attack 1.72 + Český Brod defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Český Brod attack 1.08 + Hřebeč defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hřebeč scores more
40%
level
25%
Český Brod scores more
35%

Hřebeč at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hřebeč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hřebeč vs Český Brod

Hřebeč beat Český Brod 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Hřebeč in Hřebeč.