Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Český Brod vs Hřebeč — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Český Brod
Český Brod
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hřebeč
Hřebeč
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 18Stadion Na Kutilce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Český Brod62%
×Draw19%
Hřebeč19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český Brod
2.31
Hřebeč
1.21

Český Brod creates 91% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 30 away

creates per match

Český Brod
2.18
Hřebeč
1.17

allows per match

Český Brod
1.26
Hřebeč
2.43

finishing

Český Brod+0.00on par
Hřebeč+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český Brod ↓

Hřebeč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Český Brod or draw
81%
Český Brod or Hřebeč
81%
Draw or Hřebeč
38%

Winning margin

Český Brod wins by 2+
39%
Hřebeč wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Český Brod 1+ goals
90%
Český Brod 2+ goals
67%
Český Brod 3+ goals
40%
Hřebeč 1+ goals
70%
Hřebeč 2+ goals
34%
Hřebeč 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Český Brod (draw refunded)
76%
Hřebeč (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český Brod at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

Hřebeč away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český Brod attack 2.18 + Hřebeč defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.31

Hřebeč attack 1.17 + Český Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Český Brod scores more
62%
level
19%
Hřebeč scores more
19%

Český Brod at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Český Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Český Brod 4–2 Hřebeč

Český Brod beat Hřebeč 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Kutilce in Český Brod.