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Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
11/29/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 17Malsovicka arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hradec Králové45%
×Draw24%
FK Jablonec32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové
1.70
FK Jablonec
1.40

Hradec Králové creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové
1.23
FK Jablonec
1.31

allows per match

Hradec Králové
1.49
FK Jablonec
2.17

finishing

Hradec Králové+0.44scores more
FK Jablonec+0.36scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hradec Králové or draw
68%
Hradec Králové or FK Jablonec
76%
Draw or FK Jablonec
55%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové wins by 2+
23%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hradec Králové 1+ goals
82%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
51%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
24%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
75%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
41%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
58%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.49 · 6 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.17 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové attack 1.23 + FK Jablonec defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.70

FK Jablonec attack 1.31 + Hradec Králové defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hradec Králové scores more
45%
level
24%
FK Jablonec scores more
32%

Hradec Králové at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec

Hradec Králové beat FK Jablonec 2-0 in Czech Liga on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Malsovicka arena in Hradec Kralove.