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FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové — Czech Liga 2019

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
9/28/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 10Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FK Jablonec62%
×Draw21%
Hradec Králové17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
2.03
Hradec Králové
0.96

FK Jablonec creates 111% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
1.72
Hradec Králové
0.86

allows per match

FK Jablonec
1.05
Hradec Králové
2.34

finishing

FK Jablonec-0.32scores less
Hradec Králové-0.06on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
83%
FK Jablonec or Hradec Králové
79%
Draw or Hradec Králové
38%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
38%
Hradec Králové wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
87%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
60%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
33%
Hradec Králové 1+ goals
62%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
25%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
78%
Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.34 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.72 + Hradec Králové defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.03

Hradec Králové attack 0.86 + FK Jablonec defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
62%
level
21%
Hradec Králové scores more
17%

FK Jablonec at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: FK Jablonec 2–0 Hradec Králové

FK Jablonec beat Hradec Králové 2-0 in Czech Liga on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Jablonec nad Nisou.