Hradec Králové 2–1 České Budějovice: Result & Stats

Hradec Králové

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

České Budějovice

J. Kučera 34'

D. Vašulín 32'

L. Čmelík 84'

4/16/2023

Czech Liga · Round 27Lokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Hradec Králové63%

×Draw20%

České Budějovice17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hradec KrálovéExpected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.07

Hradec Králové

2.21

České Budějovice

1.07

Hradec Králové creates 107% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

0.75

1.40

allows per match

3.16

creates per match

Hradec Králové

1.25

České Budějovice

0.75

allows per match

Hradec Králové

1.40

České Budějovice

3.16

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Hradec Králové+0.32scores more

České Budějovice+0.05on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové ↓

České Budějovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hradec Králové or draw

83%

Hradec Králové or České Budějovice

80%

Draw or České Budějovice

37%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

40%

České Budějovice wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

89%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

65%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

38%

České Budějovice 1+ goals

66%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

29%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

78%

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.40 · 7 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.16 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové attack 1.25 + České Budějovice defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.21

České Budějovice attack 0.75 + Hradec Králové defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hradec Králové scores more

63%

level

20%

České Budějovice scores more

17%

Hradec Králové at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

32'

34'

62'

63'

P. Pudhorocký← M. Leibl

70'

B. Sluka← R. Potočný

70'

M. Čermák← N. Penner

76'

M. Trusa← M. Koubek

82'

D. Broukal← O. Čoudek

82'

P. Čavoš← Q. Adediran

84'

86'

87'

90+4'

90+1'

Shots

Statistics

HradecČeské

Overview

15Total Shots11

7Corners2

12Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots11

8On Target5

6Off Target6

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1