České Budějovice 0–2 Hradec Králové: Result & Stats

České Budějovice

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hradec Králové

10/26/2024

Czech Liga · Round 13Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

České Budějovice36%

×Draw26%

Hradec Králové37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České BudějoviceExpected goals in this matchHradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.31

České Budějovice

1.29

Hradec Králové

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 88 away

1.20

creates per match

1.09

1.53

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

České Budějovice

1.20

Hradec Králové

1.09

allows per match

České Budějovice

1.53

Hradec Králové

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw

63%

České Budějovice or Hradec Králové

74%

Draw or Hradec Králové

64%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+

16%

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals

72%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

37%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

14%

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

73%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

38%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

49%

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.20 + Hradec Králové defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hradec Králové attack 1.09 + České Budějovice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

České Budějovice scores more

36%

level

26%

Hradec Králové scores more

37%

Hradec Králové at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff