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Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 — Czech Liga 2019

Hradec Králové
Hradec Královéadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
5/25/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Middle Play-offs - FinalMalšovická Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hradec Králové38%
×Draw26%
Bohemians 190536%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové
1.39
Bohemians 1905
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové
1.23
Bohemians 1905
1.21

allows per match

Hradec Králové
1.49
Bohemians 1905
1.55

finishing

Hradec Králové+0.44scores more
Bohemians 1905-0.57scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové ↓

Bohemians 1905 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hradec Králové or draw
64%
Hradec Králové or Bohemians 1905
74%
Draw or Bohemians 1905
62%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové wins by 2+
18%
Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hradec Králové 1+ goals
75%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
40%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
16%
Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
74%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
39%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
51%
Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.49 · 6 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové attack 1.23 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.21 + Hradec Králové defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hradec Králové scores more
38%
level
26%
Bohemians 1905 scores more
36%

Hradec Králové at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Hradec Králové 2–0 Bohemians 1905

Hradec Králové beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 in Czech Liga on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Malšovická Aréna in Hradec Králové.