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Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové — Czech Liga 2019

Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905advanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
5/18/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Middle Play-offs - FinalStadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bohemians 190555%
×Draw23%
Hradec Králové23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians 1905
1.88
Hradec Králové
1.13

Bohemians 1905 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bohemians 1905
1.42
Hradec Králové
0.86

allows per match

Bohemians 1905
1.40
Hradec Králové
2.34

finishing

Bohemians 1905-0.54scores less
Hradec Králové-0.06on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 ↓

Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 or draw
77%
Bohemians 1905 or Hradec Králové
77%
Draw or Hradec Králové
45%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
31%
Hradec Králové wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
85%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
56%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
29%
Hradec Králové 1+ goals
68%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
31%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
71%
Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.40 · 16 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.34 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.42 + Hradec Králové defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.88

Hradec Králové attack 0.86 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bohemians 1905 scores more
55%
level
23%
Hradec Králové scores more
23%

Bohemians 1905 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové

Bohemians 1905 beat Hradec Králové 1-0 in Czech Liga on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Ďolíček in Praha.