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Hradec Králové vs Artis — FNL 2019

Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Artis
Artis
5/22/2021FNLFNL · Round 25Všesportovní stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Hradec Králové53%
×Draw25%
Artis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové
1.60
Artis
0.93

Hradec Králové creates 72% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 103 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové
2.00
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Hradec Králové
0.57
Artis
1.21

finishing

Hradec Králové+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hradec Králové or draw
78%
Hradec Králové or Artis
75%
Draw or Artis
47%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové wins by 2+
28%
Artis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hradec Králové 1+ goals
80%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
47%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
22%
Artis 1+ goals
61%
Artis 2+ goals
24%
Artis 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
71%
Artis (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 28 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové attack 2.00 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

Artis attack 1.28 + Hradec Králové defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hradec Králové scores more
53%
level
25%
Artis scores more
22%

Hradec Králové at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hradec Králové vs Artis

Hradec Králové and Artis drew 1-1 in FNL on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Všesportovní stadion in Hradec Králové.