Artis 2–1 Hradec Králové: Result & Stats | FNL

Artis

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hradec Králové

J. Málek 70'

M. Lutonský 6'

E. Prekop 49'

3/6/2021

FNL · Round 13Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Artis37%

×Draw25%

Hradec Králové38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtisExpected goals in this matchHradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.42

Artis

1.39

Hradec Králové

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 28 away

1.53

creates per match

1.75

1.09

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Artis

1.53

Hradec Králové

1.75

allows per match

Artis

1.09

Hradec Králové

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artis+0.00on par

Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Artis or draw

62%

Artis or Hradec Králové

75%

Draw or Hradec Králové

63%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+

17%

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals

75%

Artis 2+ goals

40%

Artis 3+ goals

16%

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

76%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

41%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)

49%

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Hradec Králové defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hradec Králové attack 1.75 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Artis scores more

37%

level

25%

Hradec Králové scores more

38%

Hradec Králové at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

49'

56'

56'

62'

69'

70'

74'

D. Samko← J. Kateřiňák

74'

J. Záviška← F. Novotný

76'

M. Zikl← J. Silný

82'

D. Krska

85'

P. Demeter← M. Matocha

89'

F. Cech

90+3'

L. Fall← D. Krška

Artis

Hradec

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Valachovič

76'▲M. Zikl←▼J. Silný

85'▲P. Demeter←▼M. Matocha

90+3'▲L. Fall←▼D. Krška

Artis substitutes

ZiklDemeterFall

Manager: Z. Frťala

74'▲D. Samko←▼J. Kateřiňák

74'▲J. Záviška←▼F. Novotný

Hradec Králové substitutes

SamkoZáviška

FNL: Artis 2–1 Hradec Králové

Artis beat Hradec Králové 2-1 in FNL on March 6, 2021.

Goals: M. Lutonský (6'), E. Prekop (49'), J. Málek (70').

The match was played at Stadion SK Líšeň in Brno.

Artis vs Hradec Králové — FNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FNL: Artis 2–1 Hradec Králové