Houston Dynamo 1–1 FC Cincinnati: Result & Stats

Houston Dynamo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Cincinnati

D. Samassekou 89'

K. Denkey 36'

1/28/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Houston Dynamo52%

×Draw21%

FC Cincinnati27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston DynamoExpected goals in this matchFC Cincinnati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.45

Houston Dynamo

2.09

FC Cincinnati

1.45

Houston Dynamo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.38

creates per match

1.40

1.50

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Houston Dynamo

2.38

FC Cincinnati

1.40

allows per match

Houston Dynamo

1.50

FC Cincinnati

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Houston Dynamo+0.00on par

FC Cincinnati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo ↓

FC Cincinnati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo or draw

73%

Houston Dynamo or FC Cincinnati

79%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

48%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

31%

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

88%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

62%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

34%

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals

77%

FC Cincinnati 2+ goals

42%

FC Cincinnati 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

66%

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo attack 2.38 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.09

FC Cincinnati attack 1.40 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Houston Dynamo scores more

52%

level

21%

FC Cincinnati scores more

27%

Houston Dynamo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Houston Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

K. Denkey

89'

D. Samassekou

Houston

FC

⚽

Manager: Ben Olsen

Houston Dynamo substitutes

MarkanichLingrHolmesAHerreraSamassekouWiesnerMwakutuyaReschBetancourtMaurer

Manager: Pat Noonan

FC Cincinnati substitutes

AnungaBuchaChirilaMbomaHagglundJimenezLajharLouroPowellSmithValenzuela