FC Cincinnati 1–1 Houston Dynamo: Result & Stats

FC Cincinnati

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Houston Dynamo

P. Bucha 40'

G. Segal 85'

1/30/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Cincinnati53%

×Draw22%

Houston Dynamo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CincinnatiExpected goals in this matchHouston Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.30

FC Cincinnati

1.98

Houston Dynamo

1.30

FC Cincinnati creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.17

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

FC Cincinnati

2.17

Houston Dynamo

1.60

allows per match

FC Cincinnati

1.00

Houston Dynamo

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.00on par

Houston Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

Houston Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw

75%

FC Cincinnati or Houston Dynamo

78%

Draw or Houston Dynamo

47%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+

31%

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals

86%

FC Cincinnati 2+ goals

59%

FC Cincinnati 3+ goals

31%

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

73%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

37%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)

68%

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Houston Dynamo away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 2.17 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.98

Houston Dynamo attack 1.60 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more

53%

level

22%

Houston Dynamo scores more

25%

FC Cincinnati at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

P. Bucha

85'

G. Segal

FC

Houston

Manager: Patrick John Noonan

Manager: Juan Francisco Guerra Piñero