Houston Dynamo 2–0 Columbus Crew: Result & Stats

Houston Dynamo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Columbus Crew

8/31/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 38Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Houston Dynamo40%

×Draw26%

Columbus Crew34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston DynamoExpected goals in this matchColumbus Crew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.27

Houston Dynamo

1.40

Columbus Crew

1.27

Houston Dynamo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

1.39

creates per match

1.26

1.27

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Houston Dynamo

1.39

Columbus Crew

1.26

allows per match

Houston Dynamo

1.27

Columbus Crew

1.40

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Houston Dynamo-0.10scores less

Columbus Crew+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo ↓

Columbus Crew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo or draw

66%

Houston Dynamo or Columbus Crew

74%

Draw or Columbus Crew

60%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

19%

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

75%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

41%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

17%

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

72%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

36%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

54%

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.27 · 21 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.40 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo attack 1.39 + Columbus Crew defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Columbus Crew attack 1.26 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Houston Dynamo scores more

40%

level

26%

Columbus Crew scores more

34%

Houston Dynamo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Houston Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff