Columbus Crew 1–1 Houston Dynamo: Result & Stats

Columbus Crew

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Houston Dynamo

3/12/2024

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Lower.com Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Columbus Crew45%

×Draw29%

Houston Dynamo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus CrewExpected goals in this matchHouston Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.88

Columbus Crew

1.25

Houston Dynamo

0.88

Columbus Crew creates 42% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Columbus Crew

1.50

Houston Dynamo

0.75

allows per match

Columbus Crew

1.00

Houston Dynamo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.00on par

Houston Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

Houston Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw

74%

Columbus Crew or Houston Dynamo

71%

Draw or Houston Dynamo

55%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

20%

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

71%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

36%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

13%

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

59%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

22%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

63%

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Houston Dynamo away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.50 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Houston Dynamo attack 0.75 + Columbus Crew defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Columbus Crew scores more

45%

level

29%

Houston Dynamo scores more

26%

Columbus Crew at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff