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Hottin vs Al Majd — Premier League 2019

Hottin
Hottin
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Al Majd
Al Majd
1/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Al Basil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hottin50%
×Draw24%
Al Majd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hottin
1.72
Al Majd
1.16

Hottin creates 48% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hottin
1.33
Al Majd
1.30

allows per match

Hottin
1.02
Al Majd
2.10

finishing

Hottin+0.00on par
Al Majd+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hottin ↓

Al Majd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hottin or draw
74%
Hottin or Al Majd
76%
Draw or Al Majd
50%

Winning margin

Hottin wins by 2+
27%
Al Majd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hottin 1+ goals
82%
Hottin 2+ goals
51%
Hottin 3+ goals
25%
Al Majd 1+ goals
69%
Al Majd 2+ goals
32%
Al Majd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hottin (draw refunded)
66%
Al Majd (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hottin at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Al Majd away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hottin attack 1.33 + Al Majd defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

Al Majd attack 1.30 + Hottin defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hottin scores more
50%
level
24%
Al Majd scores more
26%

Hottin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hottin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hottin 3 – 3 Al Majd

Hottin and Al Majd drew 3-3 in Premier League on January 6, 2023.

The match was played at Al Basil Stadium in Latakia.