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Al Majd vs Hottin — Premier League 2019

Al Majd
Al Majd
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hottin
Hottin
5/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Al-Mohafaza Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Majd21%
×Draw27%
Hottin52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Majd
0.79
Hottin
1.44

Hottin creates 82% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 82 away

creates per match

Al Majd
0.64
Hottin
1.06

allows per match

Al Majd
1.82
Hottin
0.95

finishing

Al Majd+0.00on par
Hottin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Majd ↓

Hottin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Majd or draw
48%
Al Majd or Hottin
73%
Draw or Hottin
79%

Winning margin

Al Majd wins by 2+
6%
Hottin wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Al Majd 1+ goals
55%
Al Majd 2+ goals
19%
Al Majd 3+ goals
5%
Hottin 1+ goals
76%
Hottin 2+ goals
42%
Hottin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Majd (draw refunded)
28%
Hottin (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Majd at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Hottin away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Majd attack 0.64 + Hottin defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Hottin attack 1.06 + Al Majd defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Majd scores more
21%
level
27%
Hottin scores more
52%

Hottin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hottin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Majd 0 – 3 Hottin

Hottin beat Al Majd 3-0 in Premier League on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Mohafaza Training Ground in Damascus.