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Horta vs Europa Fc — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Horta
Horta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Europa Fc
Europa Fc
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 9Estade Feliu i Codina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Horta31%
×Draw25%
Europa Fc44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horta
1.24
Europa Fc
1.54

Europa Fc creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

creates per match

Horta
1.46
Europa Fc
1.55

allows per match

Horta
1.54
Europa Fc
1.02

finishing

Horta+0.00on par
Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horta ↓

Europa Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Horta or draw
56%
Horta or Europa Fc
75%
Draw or Europa Fc
69%

Winning margin

Horta wins by 2+
13%
Europa Fc wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Horta 1+ goals
71%
Horta 2+ goals
35%
Horta 3+ goals
13%
Europa Fc 1+ goals
79%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
45%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Horta (draw refunded)
41%
Europa Fc (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horta at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horta attack 1.46 + Europa Fc defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Europa Fc attack 1.55 + Horta defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Horta scores more
31%
level
25%
Europa Fc scores more
44%

Europa Fc at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horta vs Europa Fc

Horta and Europa Fc drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estade Feliu i Codina in Barcelona.