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Europa Fc vs Horta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
CANC
00:00
Horta
Horta
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Europa Fc59%
×Draw22%
Horta19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
1.89
Horta
0.96

Europa Fc creates 97% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 29 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
2.02
Horta
1.17

allows per match

Europa Fc
0.76
Horta
1.76

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Horta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Horta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
81%
Europa Fc or Horta
78%
Draw or Horta
41%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
35%
Horta wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
85%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
56%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
29%
Horta 1+ goals
62%
Horta 2+ goals
25%
Horta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
76%
Horta (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

Horta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 2.02 + Horta defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.89

Horta attack 1.17 + Europa Fc defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Europa Fc scores more
59%
level
22%
Horta scores more
19%

Europa Fc at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Europa Fc face Horta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 returns with Europa Fc hosting Horta. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Europa Fc host Horta at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.