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Horta vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Horta
Horta
CANC
00:00
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
4/11/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Estade Feliu i Codina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Horta40%
×Draw25%
Cerdanyola del Vallès34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horta
1.45
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.31

Horta creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 77 away

creates per match

Horta
1.46
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

allows per match

Horta
1.54
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.44

finishing

Horta+0.00on par
Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horta ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Horta or draw
66%
Horta or Cerdanyola del Vallès
75%
Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès
60%

Winning margin

Horta wins by 2+
19%
Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Horta 1+ goals
77%
Horta 2+ goals
42%
Horta 3+ goals
18%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
73%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
38%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Horta (draw refunded)
54%
Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horta at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horta attack 1.46 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Horta defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Horta scores more
40%
level
25%
Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
34%

Horta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Horta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Horta face Cerdanyola del Vallès (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 returns with Horta hosting Cerdanyola del Vallès. Match starts April 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Horta host Cerdanyola del Vallès at Estade Feliu i Codina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.