Cerdanyola del Vallès 2–2 Horta: Result & Stats

Cerdanyola del Vallès

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Horta

11/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadio Municipal Les Fontetes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès43%

×Draw25%

Horta32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerdanyola del VallèsExpected goals in this matchHorta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.30

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.54

Horta

1.30

Cerdanyola del Vallès creates 18% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 29 away

1.31

creates per match

1.17

1.43

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.31

Horta

1.17

allows per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.43

Horta

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Horta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerdanyola del Vallès ↓

Horta →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cerdanyola del Vallès or draw

68%

Cerdanyola del Vallès or Horta

75%

Draw or Horta

57%

Winning margin

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

21%

Horta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

79%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

45%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

20%

Horta 1+ goals

73%

Horta 2+ goals

37%

Horta 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

57%

Horta (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cerdanyola del Vallès at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Horta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.31 + Horta defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Horta attack 1.17 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

43%

level

25%

Horta scores more

32%

Cerdanyola del Vallès at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cerdanyola del Vallès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff