Hořovicko 1–0 Horní Bříza: Result & Stats

Hořovicko

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Horní Bříza

9/3/2022

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 5Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hořovicko61%

×Draw21%

Horní Bříza18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HořovickoExpected goals in this matchHorní Bříza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.98

Hořovicko

2.00

Horní Bříza

0.98

Hořovicko creates 104% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.40

1.55

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Hořovicko

1.40

Horní Bříza

0.40

allows per match

Hořovicko

1.55

Horní Bříza

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hořovicko+0.00on par

Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hořovicko ↓

Horní Bříza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hořovicko or draw

82%

Hořovicko or Horní Bříza

79%

Draw or Horní Bříza

39%

Winning margin

Hořovicko wins by 2+

37%

Horní Bříza wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hořovicko 1+ goals

86%

Hořovicko 2+ goals

59%

Hořovicko 3+ goals

32%

Horní Bříza 1+ goals

62%

Horní Bříza 2+ goals

26%

Horní Bříza 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hořovicko (draw refunded)

77%

Horní Bříza (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hořovicko at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Horní Bříza away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hořovicko attack 1.40 + Horní Bříza defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Horní Bříza attack 0.40 + Hořovicko defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hořovicko scores more

61%

level

21%

Horní Bříza scores more

18%

Hořovicko at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hořovicko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff