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Horní Bříza vs Hořovicko — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hořovicko
Hořovicko
4/1/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 20Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Horní Bříza28%
×Draw22%
Hořovicko49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Bříza
1.40
Hořovicko
1.90

Hořovicko creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Horní Bříza
0.87
Hořovicko
1.27

allows per match

Horní Bříza
2.53
Hořovicko
1.93

finishing

Horní Bříza+0.00on par
Hořovicko+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Bříza ↓

Hořovicko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Horní Bříza or draw
51%
Horní Bříza or Hořovicko
78%
Draw or Hořovicko
72%

Winning margin

Horní Bříza wins by 2+
13%
Hořovicko wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Horní Bříza 1+ goals
75%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
41%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
17%
Hořovicko 1+ goals
85%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
56%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
37%
Hořovicko (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Bříza at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Hořovicko away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Bříza attack 0.87 + Hořovicko defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hořovicko attack 1.27 + Horní Bříza defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Horní Bříza scores more
28%
level
22%
Hořovicko scores more
49%

Hořovicko at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hořovicko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horní Bříza vs Hořovicko

Hořovicko beat Horní Bříza 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza in Horní Bříza.