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Horní Bříza vs Aritma Praha — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
10/29/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 13Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Horní Bříza15%
×Draw19%
Aritma Praha66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Bříza
0.98
Aritma Praha
2.25

Aritma Praha creates 130% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Horní Bříza
0.87
Aritma Praha
1.98

allows per match

Horní Bříza
2.53
Aritma Praha
1.09

finishing

Horní Bříza+0.00on par
Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Bříza ↓

Aritma Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Horní Bříza or draw
34%
Horní Bříza or Aritma Praha
81%
Draw or Aritma Praha
85%

Winning margin

Horní Bříza wins by 2+
5%
Aritma Praha wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Horní Bříza 1+ goals
62%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
26%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
8%
Aritma Praha 1+ goals
89%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
65%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
19%
Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Bříza at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Bříza attack 0.87 + Aritma Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Aritma Praha attack 1.98 + Horní Bříza defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Horní Bříza scores more
15%
level
19%
Aritma Praha scores more
66%

Aritma Praha at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horní Bříza vs Aritma Praha

Aritma Praha beat Horní Bříza 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza in Horní Bříza.