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Aritma Praha vs Horní Bříza — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
5/27/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 28Areál Aritmy UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Aritma Praha78%
×Draw15%
Horní Bříza7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aritma Praha
2.37
Horní Bříza
0.54

Aritma Praha creates 339% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Aritma Praha
2.13
Horní Bříza
0.40

allows per match

Aritma Praha
0.67
Horní Bříza
2.60

finishing

Aritma Praha+0.00on par
Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aritma Praha ↓

Horní Bříza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aritma Praha or draw
93%
Aritma Praha or Horní Bříza
85%
Draw or Horní Bříza
22%

Winning margin

Aritma Praha wins by 2+
55%
Horní Bříza wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Aritma Praha 1+ goals
91%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
68%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
42%
Horní Bříza 1+ goals
42%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
10%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
92%
Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aritma Praha at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Horní Bříza away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aritma Praha attack 2.13 + Horní Bříza defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.37

Horní Bříza attack 0.40 + Aritma Praha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Aritma Praha scores more
78%
level
15%
Horní Bříza scores more
7%

Aritma Praha at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aritma Praha 1 – 0 Horní Bříza

Aritma Praha beat Horní Bříza 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Areál Aritmy UMT in Praha.