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Horitschon vs Eltendorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Horitschon
Horitschon
FT
2 – 2
Eltendorf
Eltendorf
10/26/2019Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 13Sportplatz Horitschon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Horitschon57%
×Draw21%
Eltendorf23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horitschon
2.17
Eltendorf
1.32

Horitschon creates 64% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 9 away

creates per match

Horitschon
1.89
Eltendorf
1.00

allows per match

Horitschon
1.65
Eltendorf
2.44

finishing

Horitschon+0.00on par
Eltendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horitschon ↓

Eltendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Horitschon or draw
77%
Horitschon or Eltendorf
79%
Draw or Eltendorf
43%

Winning margin

Horitschon wins by 2+
34%
Eltendorf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Horitschon 1+ goals
89%
Horitschon 2+ goals
64%
Horitschon 3+ goals
36%
Eltendorf 1+ goals
73%
Eltendorf 2+ goals
38%
Eltendorf 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Horitschon (draw refunded)
71%
Eltendorf (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horitschon at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.65 · 84 matches

Eltendorf away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horitschon attack 1.89 + Eltendorf defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.17

Eltendorf attack 1.00 + Horitschon defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Horitschon scores more
57%
level
21%
Eltendorf scores more
23%

Horitschon at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Horitschon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Horitschon 2–2 Eltendorf

Horitschon and Eltendorf drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Burgenland on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Horitschon in Horitschon.