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Eltendorf vs Horitschon — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Eltendorf
Eltendorf
CANC
15:30
Horitschon
Horitschon
5/30/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 28Navigat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eltendorf49%
×Draw20%
Horitschon32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltendorf
2.42
Horitschon
1.94

Eltendorf creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 88 away

creates per match

Eltendorf
2.50
Horitschon
1.76

allows per match

Eltendorf
2.13
Horitschon
2.33

finishing

Eltendorf+0.00on par
Horitschon+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltendorf ↓

Horitschon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Eltendorf or draw
68%
Eltendorf or Horitschon
80%
Draw or Horitschon
51%

Winning margin

Eltendorf wins by 2+
30%
Horitschon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eltendorf 1+ goals
91%
Eltendorf 2+ goals
69%
Eltendorf 3+ goals
43%
Horitschon 1+ goals
86%
Horitschon 2+ goals
58%
Horitschon 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Eltendorf (draw refunded)
61%
Horitschon (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltendorf at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Horitschon away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.33 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltendorf attack 2.50 + Horitschon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Horitschon attack 1.76 + Eltendorf defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eltendorf scores more
49%
level
20%
Horitschon scores more
32%

Eltendorf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eltendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eltendorf face Horitschon (Landesliga - Burgenland)

Landesliga - Burgenland returns with Eltendorf hosting Horitschon. Match starts May 30, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Eltendorf host Horitschon at Navigat Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.