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Hörbranz vs Hittisau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Hörbranz
Hörbranz
FT
3 – 0
Hittisau
Hittisau
4/1/2023Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 20Sportplatz Sandriesel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hörbranz57%
×Draw19%
Hittisau24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hörbranz
2.52
Hittisau
1.60

Hörbranz creates 57% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hörbranz
1.77
Hittisau
1.20

allows per match

Hörbranz
2.00
Hittisau
3.27

finishing

Hörbranz+0.00on par
Hittisau+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hörbranz ↓

Hittisau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hörbranz or draw
76%
Hörbranz or Hittisau
81%
Draw or Hittisau
43%

Winning margin

Hörbranz wins by 2+
37%
Hittisau wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hörbranz 1+ goals
92%
Hörbranz 2+ goals
71%
Hörbranz 3+ goals
45%
Hittisau 1+ goals
80%
Hittisau 2+ goals
47%
Hittisau 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hörbranz (draw refunded)
71%
Hittisau (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hörbranz at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

Hittisau away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hörbranz attack 1.77 + Hittisau defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.52

Hittisau attack 1.20 + Hörbranz defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hörbranz scores more
57%
level
19%
Hittisau scores more
24%

Hörbranz at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hörbranz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Hörbranz 3–0 Hittisau

Hörbranz beat Hittisau 3-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Sandriesel in Gemeinde Hörbranz.