Hittisau 1–4 Hörbranz: Result & Stats

Hittisau

FT

1 – 4

Hörbranz

8/20/2022

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 5Sportanlage Hittisau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hittisau40%

×Draw22%

Hörbranz39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HittisauExpected goals in this matchHörbranz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.84

Hittisau

1.87

Hörbranz

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

1.53

creates per match

1.41

2.27

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Hittisau

1.53

Hörbranz

1.41

allows per match

Hittisau

2.27

Hörbranz

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hittisau+0.00on par

Hörbranz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hittisau ↓

Hörbranz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hittisau or draw

61%

Hittisau or Hörbranz

78%

Draw or Hörbranz

60%

Winning margin

Hittisau wins by 2+

21%

Hörbranz wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hittisau 1+ goals

85%

Hittisau 2+ goals

56%

Hittisau 3+ goals

29%

Hörbranz 1+ goals

84%

Hörbranz 2+ goals

55%

Hörbranz 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Hittisau (draw refunded)

51%

Hörbranz (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hittisau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Hörbranz away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hittisau attack 1.53 + Hörbranz defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.87

Hörbranz attack 1.41 + Hittisau defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hittisau scores more

40%

level

22%

Hörbranz scores more

39%

Hittisau at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hittisau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff