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Honvéd II vs Dabas — NB III - Southeast 2023

Honvéd II
Honvéd II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dabas
Dabas
7/27/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 1Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Honvéd II44%
×Draw24%
Dabas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honvéd II
1.67
Dabas
1.40

Honvéd II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Honvéd II
1.78
Dabas
1.47

allows per match

Honvéd II
1.33
Dabas
1.56

finishing

Honvéd II+0.00on par
Dabas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honvéd II ↓

Dabas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Honvéd II or draw
68%
Honvéd II or Dabas
76%
Draw or Dabas
56%

Winning margin

Honvéd II wins by 2+
23%
Dabas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Honvéd II 1+ goals
81%
Honvéd II 2+ goals
50%
Honvéd II 3+ goals
23%
Dabas 1+ goals
75%
Dabas 2+ goals
41%
Dabas 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Honvéd II (draw refunded)
58%
Dabas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honvéd II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Dabas away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honvéd II attack 1.78 + Dabas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dabas attack 1.47 + Honvéd II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Honvéd II scores more
44%
level
24%
Dabas scores more
32%

Honvéd II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Honvéd II vs Dabas

Honvéd II and Dabas drew 1-1 in NB III - Southeast on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ in Budapest.