Dabas 0–1 Honvéd II: Result & Stats

Dabas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Honvéd II

11/15/2025

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 16FC Dabas Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dabas36%

×Draw25%

Honvéd II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DabasExpected goals in this matchHonvéd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.46

Dabas

1.38

Honvéd II

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

1.69

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Dabas

1.18

Honvéd II

1.24

allows per match

Dabas

1.69

Honvéd II

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dabas+0.00on par

Honvéd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dabas ↓

Honvéd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dabas or draw

61%

Dabas or Honvéd II

75%

Draw or Honvéd II

64%

Winning margin

Dabas wins by 2+

16%

Honvéd II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dabas 1+ goals

75%

Dabas 2+ goals

40%

Dabas 3+ goals

16%

Honvéd II 1+ goals

77%

Honvéd II 2+ goals

43%

Honvéd II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dabas (draw refunded)

48%

Honvéd II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dabas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Honvéd II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dabas attack 1.18 + Honvéd II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Honvéd II attack 1.24 + Dabas defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dabas scores more

36%

level

25%

Honvéd II scores more

39%

Honvéd II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff