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Honka vs AC Oulu — Veikkausliiga 2026

Honka
Honka
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
7/30/2023VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 17Tapiolan Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Honka52%
×Draw24%
AC Oulu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
1.74
AC Oulu
1.12

Honka creates 55% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 79 away

creates per match

Honka
1.64
AC Oulu
1.32

allows per match

Honka
0.92
AC Oulu
1.84

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Honka or draw
76%
Honka or AC Oulu
76%
Draw or AC Oulu
48%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
28%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
82%
Honka 2+ goals
52%
Honka 3+ goals
25%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
67%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
31%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
68%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.84 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 1.64 + AC Oulu defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.74

AC Oulu attack 1.32 + Honka defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Honka scores more
52%
level
24%
AC Oulu scores more
24%

Honka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Honka vs AC Oulu

Honka beat AC Oulu 4-1 in Veikkausliiga on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto in Esbo.