AC Oulu 1–3 Honka: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Honka

N. Jokelainen 12'

Clésio 64', 47'

J. Alegría 31'

5/22/2023

Veikkausliiga · Round 8Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

AC Oulu33%

×Draw27%

Honka40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC OuluExpected goals in this matchHonka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.33

AC Oulu

1.19

Honka

1.33

Honka creates 12% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 82 away

1.25

creates per match

1.29

1.36

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

AC Oulu

1.25

Honka

1.29

allows per match

AC Oulu

1.36

Honka

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par

Honka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

Honka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw

60%

AC Oulu or Honka

73%

Draw or Honka

67%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+

14%

Honka wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals

70%

AC Oulu 2+ goals

33%

AC Oulu 3+ goals

12%

Honka 1+ goals

74%

Honka 2+ goals

38%

Honka 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)

45%

Honka (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

Honka away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.25 + Honka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Honka attack 1.29 + AC Oulu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AC Oulu scores more

33%

level

27%

Honka scores more

40%

Honka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

14'

31'

47'

53'

64'

74'

Y. Baliso← N. Jokelainen

74'

D. Heikkinen← Luquinhas

74'

Y. Daoussi← R. Selander

74'

O. Suutari← A. Coffey

75'

O. Koskinen← J. Alegría

75'

Lucas Kaufmann← Clésio

83'

V. Vasara

84'

L. Laine← E. Arko-Mensah

90+2'

F. Baak← V. Koski

90+2'

N. Saarikivi← M. Ortíz

AC

Honka

1

Rudakov

23

Hernández

7

⚽2A

▼

Clésio

21

▼

47

26

8

11

15

▼

Arko-Mens

32

A

▼

Ortíz

9

⚽A

▼

Alegría

35

Ward

6

▼

15

5

30

14

⚽

▼

8

20

7

10

▼

Luquinhas

9

▼

Coffey

Manager: Ricardo Duarte

74'▲Y. Baliso←▼N. Jokelainen

74'▲D. Heikkinen←▼Luquinhas

74'▲Y. Daoussi←▼R. Selander

74'▲O. Suutari←▼A. Coffey

AC Oulu substitutes

16Baliso22Heikkinen23Daoussi19Suutari25Taskila1Pennanen24Huhtala

Manager: V. Vasara

75'▲O. Koskinen←▼J. Alegría

75'▲Lucas Kaufmann←▼Clésio

84'▲L. Laine←▼E. Arko-Mensah

90+2'▲F. Baak←▼V. Koski

90+2'▲N. Saarikivi←▼M. Ortíz

Honka substitutes

88Koskinen10Kaufmann17Laine4Baak14Saarikivi27Venermo12Paunio

AC Oulu 1 – 3 Honka

Honka beat AC Oulu 3-1 in Veikkausliiga on May 22, 2023.

Goals: N. Jokelainen (12'), J. Alegría (31'), Clésio (47', 64').

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.

AC Oulu vs Honka — Veikkausliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

AC Oulu 1 – 3 Honka