Honka Akatemia 1–3 Gnistan: Result & Stats

Honka Akatemia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Gnistan

5/19/2019

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Round 4Tapiolan tekonurmi (Espoo (Esbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Honka Akatemia22%

×Draw21%

Gnistan57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Honka AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchGnistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.09

Honka Akatemia

1.24

Gnistan

2.09

Gnistan creates 69% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 11 away

1.93

creates per match

2.73

1.45

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Honka Akatemia

1.93

Gnistan

2.73

allows per match

Honka Akatemia

1.45

Gnistan

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka Akatemia ↓

Gnistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Honka Akatemia or draw

43%

Honka Akatemia or Gnistan

79%

Draw or Gnistan

78%

Winning margin

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+

9%

Gnistan wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals

71%

Honka Akatemia 2+ goals

35%

Honka Akatemia 3+ goals

13%

Gnistan 1+ goals

88%

Gnistan 2+ goals

62%

Gnistan 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)

28%

Gnistan (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka Akatemia at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

Gnistan away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka Akatemia attack 1.93 + Gnistan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Gnistan attack 2.73 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Honka Akatemia scores more

22%

level

21%

Gnistan scores more

57%

Gnistan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff