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Gnistan vs Honka Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Honka Akatemia
Honka Akatemia
7/26/2019Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 13Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gnistan46%
×Draw22%
Honka Akatemia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
1.88
Honka Akatemia
1.51

Gnistan creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 56 away

creates per match

Gnistan
2.45
Honka Akatemia
1.57

allows per match

Gnistan
1.45
Honka Akatemia
1.30

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

Honka Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
69%
Gnistan or Honka Akatemia
78%
Draw or Honka Akatemia
54%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
26%
Honka Akatemia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
85%
Gnistan 2+ goals
56%
Gnistan 3+ goals
29%
Honka Akatemia 1+ goals
78%
Honka Akatemia 2+ goals
44%
Honka Akatemia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
60%
Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Honka Akatemia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 2.45 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.88

Honka Akatemia attack 1.57 + Gnistan defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gnistan scores more
46%
level
22%
Honka Akatemia scores more
31%

Gnistan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Gnistan 1–1 Honka Akatemia

Gnistan and Honka Akatemia drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on July 26, 2019.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki).