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Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Binh Dinh — V.League 1 2019

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh
12/16/2023V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 6Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh37%
×Draw28%
Binh Dinh35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.19
Binh Dinh
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 54 away

creates per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.14
Binh Dinh
1.17

allows per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.10
Binh Dinh
1.24

finishing

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par
Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh ↓

Binh Dinh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or draw
65%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or Binh Dinh
72%
Draw or Binh Dinh
63%

Winning margin

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+
16%
Binh Dinh wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals
70%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals
33%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals
12%
Binh Dinh 1+ goals
68%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
32%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)
52%
Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 78 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 1.14 + Binh Dinh defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Binh Dinh attack 1.17 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more
37%
level
28%
Binh Dinh scores more
35%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Binh Dinh

Binh Dinh beat Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 4-0 in V.League 1 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh in Hà Tĩnh.