Binh Dinh 1–1 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh: Result & Stats

Binh Dinh

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

8/6/2023

V.League 1 · Championship Round - 5Sân vận động Qui Nhơn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Binh Dinh45%

×Draw27%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Binh DinhExpected goals in this matchHồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.99

Binh Dinh

1.36

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

0.99

Binh Dinh creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 77 away

1.41

creates per match

0.82

1.17

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Binh Dinh

1.41

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

0.82

allows per match

Binh Dinh

1.17

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Dinh ↓

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Binh Dinh or draw

73%

Binh Dinh or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

73%

Draw or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

55%

Winning margin

Binh Dinh wins by 2+

21%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Binh Dinh 1+ goals

74%

Binh Dinh 2+ goals

39%

Binh Dinh 3+ goals

16%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals

63%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals

26%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)

62%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Dinh at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Dinh attack 1.41 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 0.82 + Binh Dinh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Binh Dinh scores more

45%

level

27%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more

27%

Binh Dinh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Binh Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff