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Home United vs Ceres — AFC Cup 2018

Home United
Home United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ceres
Ceres
2/27/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Jalan Besar Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Home United40%
×Draw22%
Ceres37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Home United
1.77
Ceres
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

creates per match

Home United
2.32
Ceres
2.22

allows per match

Home United
1.16
Ceres
1.22

finishing

Home United+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home United ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Home United or draw
63%
Home United or Ceres
78%
Draw or Ceres
60%

Winning margin

Home United wins by 2+
21%
Ceres wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Home United 1+ goals
83%
Home United 2+ goals
53%
Home United 3+ goals
26%
Ceres 1+ goals
82%
Ceres 2+ goals
50%
Ceres 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Home United (draw refunded)
52%
Ceres (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home United at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Ceres away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home United attack 2.32 + Ceres defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ceres attack 2.22 + Home United defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Home United scores more
40%
level
22%
Ceres scores more
37%

Home United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Home United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Home United 1–1 Ceres

Home United and Ceres drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on February 27, 2018.

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium (Singapore).