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Ceres vs Home United — AFC Cup 2018

Ceres
Ceres
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Home United
Home United
4/25/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ceres59%
×Draw20%
Home United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
2.26
Home United
1.27

Ceres creates 78% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ceres
2.58
Home United
1.61

allows per match

Ceres
0.92
Home United
1.94

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Home United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Home United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
79%
Ceres or Home United
80%
Draw or Home United
41%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
37%
Home United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
89%
Ceres 2+ goals
66%
Ceres 3+ goals
39%
Home United 1+ goals
72%
Home United 2+ goals
36%
Home United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
74%
Home United (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Home United away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.58 + Home United defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.26

Home United attack 1.61 + Ceres defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ceres scores more
59%
level
20%
Home United scores more
21%

Ceres at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Ceres 0–2 Home United

Home United beat Ceres 2-0 in AFC Cup on April 25, 2018.

The match was played at Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City).