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Homberg vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Homberg
Homberg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
9/11/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 7PCC-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Homberg65%
×Draw19%
FSV Duisburg16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homberg
2.28
FSV Duisburg
1.02

Homberg creates 124% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 42 away

creates per match

Homberg
1.87
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

Homberg
1.10
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Homberg or draw
84%
Homberg or FSV Duisburg
81%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
35%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+
42%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals
90%
Homberg 2+ goals
66%
Homberg 3+ goals
39%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
64%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
27%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)
81%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 1.87 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.28

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + Homberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Homberg scores more
65%
level
19%
FSV Duisburg scores more
16%

Homberg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Homberg 1–1 FSV Duisburg

Homberg and FSV Duisburg drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at PCC-Stadion in Duisburg.