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FSV Duisburg vs Homberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Homberg
Homberg
3/12/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 28Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

FSV Duisburg34%
×Draw22%
Homberg44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Duisburg
1.60
Homberg
1.84

Homberg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 71 away

creates per match

FSV Duisburg
1.38
Homberg
1.51

allows per match

FSV Duisburg
2.17
Homberg
1.83

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par
Homberg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

Homberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw
56%
FSV Duisburg or Homberg
78%
Draw or Homberg
66%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
16%
Homberg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
80%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
47%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
22%
Homberg 1+ goals
84%
Homberg 2+ goals
55%
Homberg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
44%
Homberg (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

Homberg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + Homberg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Homberg attack 1.51 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more
34%
level
22%
Homberg scores more
44%

Homberg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: FSV Duisburg 1–1 Homberg

FSV Duisburg and Homberg drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg in Duisburg.