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Holzwickeder SC vs FC Gutersloh — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
CANC
13:00
FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
5/9/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 36Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC23%
×Draw21%
FC Gutersloh56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holzwickeder SC
1.25
FC Gutersloh
2.05

FC Gutersloh creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC
1.56
FC Gutersloh
1.67

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC
2.44
FC Gutersloh
0.94

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par
FC Gutersloh+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

FC Gutersloh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw
44%
Holzwickeder SC or FC Gutersloh
79%
Draw or FC Gutersloh
77%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
9%
FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
71%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
36%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
13%
FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
87%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
61%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
29%
FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

FC Gutersloh away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Gutersloh attack 1.67 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more
23%
level
21%
FC Gutersloh scores more
56%

FC Gutersloh at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Holzwickeder SC host FC Gutersloh

May 9, 2021: Holzwickeder SC take on FC Gutersloh in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Holzwickeder SC host FC Gutersloh at Montanhydraulik-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.