Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Gutersloh vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
CANC
13:30
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
12/6/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 15Heidewaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Gutersloh48%
×Draw23%
Holzwickeder SC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gutersloh
1.75
Holzwickeder SC
1.30

FC Gutersloh creates 35% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 18 away

creates per match

FC Gutersloh
1.83
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

FC Gutersloh
0.89
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

FC Gutersloh+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gutersloh ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Gutersloh or draw
71%
FC Gutersloh or Holzwickeder SC
77%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
52%

Winning margin

FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
26%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
83%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
52%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
25%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
73%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
37%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
63%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gutersloh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gutersloh attack 1.83 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Gutersloh scores more
48%
level
23%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
29%

FC Gutersloh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Gutersloh vs Holzwickeder SC — Match Preview

FC Gutersloh face Holzwickeder SC on December 6, 2020 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Gutersloh host Holzwickeder SC at Heidewaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.