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Holzwickeder SC vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
CANC
14:00
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
2/13/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC27%
×Draw21%
ASC Dortmund52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holzwickeder SC
1.56
ASC Dortmund
2.20

ASC Dortmund creates 41% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC
1.56
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC
2.44
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw
48%
Holzwickeder SC or ASC Dortmund
79%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
73%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
13%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
79%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
46%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
21%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
89%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
64%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
34%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more
27%
level
21%
ASC Dortmund scores more
52%

ASC Dortmund at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Holzwickeder SC face ASC Dortmund (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Holzwickeder SC hosting ASC Dortmund. Match starts February 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Holzwickeder SC host ASC Dortmund at Montanhydraulik-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.