ASC Dortmund vs Holzwickeder SC

ASC Dortmund

CANC

13:00

Holzwickeder SC

6/13/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 41Waldstadion Aplerbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ASC Dortmund46%

×Draw22%

Holzwickeder SC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASC DortmundExpected goals in this matchHolzwickeder SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.55

ASC Dortmund

1.92

Holzwickeder SC

1.55

ASC Dortmund creates 24% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

2.17

creates per match

1.72

1.38

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

ASC Dortmund

2.17

Holzwickeder SC

1.72

allows per match

ASC Dortmund

1.38

Holzwickeder SC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

Holzwickeder SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw

69%

ASC Dortmund or Holzwickeder SC

78%

Draw or Holzwickeder SC

54%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+

26%

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals

85%

ASC Dortmund 2+ goals

57%

ASC Dortmund 3+ goals

30%

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals

79%

Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals

46%

Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)

60%

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more

46%

level

22%

Holzwickeder SC scores more

31%

ASC Dortmund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff