Holstein Kiel 2–1 Sonderjyske: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sonderjyske

K. Davidsen 68'

A. Kapralik 42'

O. Hyseni 2'

7/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Holstein Kiel56%

×Draw20%

Sonderjyske24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein KielExpected goals in this matchSonderjyske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.45

Holstein Kiel

2.30

Sonderjyske

1.45

Holstein Kiel creates 59% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.40

1.50

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Holstein Kiel

2.00

Sonderjyske

1.40

allows per match

Holstein Kiel

1.50

Sonderjyske

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Sonderjyske+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Sonderjyske →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw

76%

Holstein Kiel or Sonderjyske

80%

Draw or Sonderjyske

44%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

35%

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

90%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

67%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

40%

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

77%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

42%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

70%

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 2.00 + Sonderjyske defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Sonderjyske attack 1.40 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more

56%

level

20%

Sonderjyske scores more

24%

Holstein Kiel at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

O. Hyseni

42'

A. Kapralik

68'

K. Davidsen

Holstein

Sonderjyske

⚽

⚽

Manager: Tim Walter

Holstein Kiel substitutes

31Engelhardt2Roslyng6Ivezic9Kvilitaia10Therkelsen15Davidsen17Alidou26Zec27Ugoh29Niehoff46Medlin47Tolkin48Muqaj

Manager: Thomas Norgaard

Friendlies Clubs: Holstein Kiel 2–1 Sonderjyske

Holstein Kiel beat Sonderjyske 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2026.

Goals: O. Hyseni (2'), A. Kapralik (42'), K. Davidsen (68').

Holstein Kiel vs Sonderjyske — Friendlies Clubs 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Holstein Kiel 2–1 Sonderjyske