Holstein Kiel 0–0 Sonderjyske: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sonderjyske

7/12/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Holstein Kiel55%

×Draw22%

Sonderjyske23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein KielExpected goals in this matchSonderjyske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.17

Holstein Kiel

1.93

Sonderjyske

1.17

Holstein Kiel creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

1.09

1.25

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Holstein Kiel

1.50

Sonderjyske

1.09

allows per match

Holstein Kiel

1.25

Sonderjyske

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Sonderjyske+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Sonderjyske →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw

77%

Holstein Kiel or Sonderjyske

78%

Draw or Sonderjyske

45%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

32%

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

85%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

57%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

30%

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

69%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

33%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

71%

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.50 + Sonderjyske defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sonderjyske attack 1.09 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more

55%

level

22%

Sonderjyske scores more

23%

Holstein Kiel at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

F. Porath

46'

M. Komenda← M. Schulz

46'

P. Erras← C. Johansson

47'

N. Flo← J. Busk

47'

M. Knudsen← L. Holtby

47'

F. Porath← J. Sterner

47'

L. Rosenboom← M. Trkulja

47'

S. Skrzybski← S. Skrzybski

48'

N. Remberg← T. Becker

48'

B. Pichler← B. Pichler

48'

A. Bernhardsson← M. Geschwill

48'

S. Machino← J. Arp

50'

D. L. Gretarsson← M. Dal Hende

51'

L. Bjorklund← A. Lyng

63'

R. Vinderslev← H. M. Cherif

63'

T. Klysner← S. Waever

63'

A. Oggesen← S. Andreasen

74'

M. Geschwill← A. Wagbe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff