Holstein Kiel 2–0 Hansa Rostock: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hansa Rostock

L. Holtby 57'

S. Skrzybski 3'

3/30/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 27Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Holstein Kiel48%

×Draw25%

Hansa Rostock27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein KielExpected goals in this matchHansa Rostock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.15

Holstein Kiel

1.63

Hansa Rostock

1.15

Holstein Kiel creates 42% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 54 away

1.60

creates per match

0.94

1.35

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Holstein Kiel

1.60

Hansa Rostock

0.94

allows per match

Holstein Kiel

1.35

Hansa Rostock

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Hansa Rostock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw

73%

Holstein Kiel or Hansa Rostock

75%

Draw or Hansa Rostock

52%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

25%

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

80%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

48%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

22%

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

68%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

32%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

64%

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.60 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more

48%

level

25%

Hansa Rostock scores more

27%

Holstein Kiel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Skrzybski

Holstein Kiel · M

7.3

Match Events

3'

S. Skrzybski↳ S. Machino

15'

Jonas David

31'

Philipp Sander

46'

N. Fröling← Júnior Brumado

46'

J. Perea← C. Kinsombi

47'

51'

57'

63'

64'

65'

N. Remberg← S. Skrzybski

74'

J. Arp← S. Machino

74'

L. Rosenboom← F. Porath

82'

Damian Roßbach

82'

C. Johansson← T. Becker

82'

M. Schulz← P. Sander

82'

S. Vasiliadis← S. Rhein

82'

J. Strauß← N. Neidhart

83'

S. Guðjohnsen← S. Ingelsson

90+1'

Jann-Fiete Arp

90'

Tom Rothe

90+2'

Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HolsteinHansa

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots13

7Corners4

16Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target2

3Off Target8

4Blocked3

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

385Total Passes389

303Accurate Passes297

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls17

6Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3