Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 54+ matches
Holstein Kiel48%
Hansa Rostock27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Holstein Kiel creates 42% more chances
Season form · 116 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Holstein Kiel ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches
Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Holstein Kiel attack 1.60 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63
Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Holstein Kiel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Hansa Rostock substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo DresdenHolstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Holstein Kiel host Hansa Rostock on Saturday, 1 October 2022 at 11:00. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Holstein Kiel 1 – 1 Hansa Rostock
Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on October 1, 2022.
Goals: F. Reese (28' pen), L. Hinterseer (88').
Holstein Kiel controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 14.
The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.