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Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Dusseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
5/11/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 33Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Holstein Kiel40%
×Draw25%
Fortuna Dusseldorf35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel
1.51
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 102 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel
1.63
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.38

allows per match

Holstein Kiel
1.37
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.39

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par
Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw
65%
Holstein Kiel or Fortuna Dusseldorf
75%
Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf
60%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
20%
Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
78%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
44%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
19%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
75%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
40%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
54%
Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.38 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more
40%
level
25%
Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
35%

Holstein Kiel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel 1–1 Fortuna Dusseldorf

Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Dusseldorf drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.